(*** NEXT Blog Posting THURSDAY … after Leaders’ Debate Wednesday, from 6:15 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. on Global BC.)
BC voters should pay special attention to the results of Quebec’s provincial election.
The Parti Quebecois … which attracted only 28% of the popular vote … will form the next government!
Mon dieu! Imagine: a separatist party that wants to break up the country … and is supported by less than a third of the voters …. will govern Quebeckers’ lives for up to four years.
If there’s any good news, it’s that the PQ captured only 59 seats … five short of a majority … so its power will be somewhat constrained and Quebeckers will likely get another chance to vote well before the PQ’s full term expires.
The Liberals, with 40 seats, will form the Official Opposition; the Conservatives will hold 19 seats; Quebec Solidaire 9; and, the former ruling party, Coalition Action Quebec, was wiped out.
But from BC’s perspective, what I found most interesting was how the PQ won power by the lowest “winning” popular vote … 28% …. in Quebec election history.
The Liberals won 24.2% support; the Conservatives 20.6%; Quebec Solidaire 12.4%; and the CAQ 13.3%.
In other words, the PQ won because the four other parties … with more than 70% of the votes, SPLIT the popular vote!
David Eby must have been jumping up and down with joy!
BC also has several parties vying for votes in its upcoming Oct 24 provincial election, including: the NDP; BC Conservatives; Centre BC, OneBC; and, the Greens.
The three centre/centre-right parties each winning seats around the province … just like in Quebec … could hold the key for the NDP to form government again, especially if the Greens also capture seats and are willing to enter into a supportive agreement.
Sound familiar! BC has been there before! LOL!
What the Quebec election results show should be clear to British Columbians: the BIGGEST issue facing our voters is … To Eby or Not to Eby, THAT is the Question.
The ONLY Opposition party capable of defeating Eby/NDP and forming government is the BC Conservatives.
A vote for CentreBC or BCOne … splitting the vote … is a vote for another Eby term, even if the NDP drops in the popular vote!
Pass it on!!
Harv Oberfeld
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The latest scandal is the $10 a day daycare. It’s unbelievable that the premier and his wife are enjoying subsidized daycare His wife is a doctor, so surely they could give their child’s spot to a less privileged family. Maybe they really think they’re special.
(Response: To be fair, Eby explained his first child was already enrolled when the school became $10 eligible ..and he still paid/donated; the difference voluntarily; however, their second child later also enrolled at $10 a day … and what may be damaging with voters is Eby says they WILL also pay the difference … although he has not yet done so. That doesn’t look good. Ho)
Just an observation.
It seems the Conservatives read your blog and the NDP do not.
Eby’s war on the rich is ever so cliched and he seems lost with real issues.
It has also be brought to my attention that an article in the ‘Mop and Pail, “BC’s debt trap is snapping shut” mentions and confirms confirms my estimate of the current SkyTrain extension debt of $10 to $20 billion.
Just another day in Lotus land!
(Response: I suspect they both read it. I noticed that within one hour of Eby announcing the election, I started receiving emailed press releases from the NDP and have been getting them ever since, noting his upcoming appearances and all their announcements. Of course, I do not attend: after all, I am retired! 😁 Ho)
I am a bit late to the dance but better late than not at all.
The Quebec election did not tell me that we need to vote strategically. The Quebec vote is just one more example of why some kind of electoral reform is needed.
An electoral system that encourages people to vote for a party/person who is their second or even third choice for the sole reason of preventing another party from gaining a seat due to vote splitting just seems anti-democratic.
Andrew Weaver and Elenore Sturko would be very good legislators but they are getting no support anyway because most feel that they haven’t a hope so we just vote for one of the two major parties that MOST of us feel are not worth our vote. What’s the refrain from the right: We can’t let those left wing crazies have four more years. And the left: We can’t let those right wing crazies take over. There is nothing positive.
Voting for CentreBC or the Greens or even I hate to say it OneBC, should not be a wasted vote.
By the way, according to 338 the Conservatives have a 75% chance of forming a majority. The chance of a minority is very slim as the Greens can only hope for a couple of seats.
https://338canada.com/bc/
(Response: I am not sure why you don’t see the Quebec election results as a perfect example of what happens when the vote gets split: clearly the Parti Quebec became government… with only 28% of the vote… because the opposition parties all split the balance, a whopping 70% of the votes cast.
As for proportional representation, I know it looks good on paper and certainly, from a point of view of fairness, everyone’s vote does end up, counting for more than in the first past the post system. But then I look at Italy or Israel, where small wacko minority parties can end up holding enough seats to blackmail the leading minority party trying to form government.Not good.
And don’t count Sturko or Weaver out: sometimes personal popularity triumphs over the major parties, especially when neither of the biggies are wildly favored. Ho)
(Response: I am not sure why you don’t see the Quebec election results as a perfect example of what happens when the vote gets split: clearly the Parti Quebec became government… with only 28% of the vote… because the opposition parties all split the balance, a whopping 70% of the votes cast…HO)
Once again, I am not sure what you think I said. I said, “The Quebec election did not tell me that we need to vote strategically. The Quebec vote is just one more example of why some kind of electoral reform is needed.”
Five parties got between 12% of the vote and 28% of the vote. The four losing parties got about 70% of the vote. So yeh they split the vote and that allowed the PQ to win. But who do you suggest the supporters of the four losing parties should have voted for to prevent the PQ from winning? All five parties had healthy support.
So your conclusion from the Quebec vote is that BC voters who are voting for OneBC and CentreBC are wasting their votes on losing parties and that will allow the NDP to win. In other words, if you want the NDP gone vote strategically for the Conservatives. But you could also have said the same for most Green supporters. If you don’t want the Conservatives to win vote NDP. And if that is the case, why have anything other than two parties.
If the Conservatives win (which I believe will be the result) the idea of a centrist party forming is pretty much gone. Look at how quickly the 7 Conservatives like Milobar flew back to the Conservatives. CentreBC is only running in about half of the ridings. I am no oddsmaker but do you think CentreBC will get more than 5% of the provincial vote? And where are they getting that vote. OneBC and its maybe 2% of the vote is definitely stealing from the Conservatives but who is CentreBC stealing from?
I don’t want to debate electoral reform. But I believe that some form of electoral reform is better than people feeling their vote is wasted and voting for a second party they don’t really like to prevent another party they dislike more from winning. Having a viable choice will keep people involved in the process and what I mean by that is VOTING instead of staying home mumbling “a pox on both their houses.”
If people felt that CentreBC had a chance of getting a couple of seats in the legislature because they met a threshold of support, I am sure more people would be voting for them.
David Eby is lucky he’s running in BC and not in Quebec. If he were in Quebec, I suspect his party would be completely eliminated and he wouldn’t win his own seat. There are so many reasons to fire him, but I’ll just name a few.
He’s a terrible manager of the economy. Voters need to remember he promised them a $1000 cheque in the last election but gave a raise to his MPs instead. He obviously doesn’t respect fixed election dates and called an unnecessary early election purely out of self-interest. The decision to call an election after the Conservative leader had resigned was very dirty and apparently made against the advice of his own aides.
Socialist David Eby attacks entrepreneurs like Jimmy Pattison, who he knows won’t vote for the NDP. He acts like he’s a lawyer for one ethnic group in the province that he prioritizes over others. Without question, he’s very good at representing the interests of the CCP. He wastes money on drugs for addicts, and he’s very arrogant. This early election is essentially an IQ test for British Columbians. I think they’ll pass this time.
(Response: After two weeks of campaigning, I sense Eby has a credibility problem: previous broken promises are hurting and a lot of people are still upset at the early election call. However, there are many “safe” ridings where the NDP remain strong and voters would be unlikely to vote for the Conservatives. So it could come down to independent-minded swing voters in toss-up ridings … and I think, based on Eby/NDP’s record on many key issues, those votes will go Conservative this time. Ho)
This latest conservative party blunder with Joachim Agou is exactly why folks are still wary of that crowd. It’s a new leader of the same misfits.
Give Agou credit for taking responsibility and apologizing, but that is undone by his claim the actions were not racist.
How many more unknown, troublesome oddballs are currently hidden? I can’t help but think Eby has more to expose as election day gets closer.
(Response: You have to wonder how anyone who spews racist or extreme views win the nomination of any party. The answer, though, probably lies in the fact that leaders or headquarter staff don’t really know what/who is going on in all ridings … until something surfaces in the news, from old social media posts or discovered by an opponent. So what I watch for is how the leader/party deals with it when it surfaces: I remember Rustad, facing a similar situation, reacted weakly, defending the wide range of views etc. … so was happy to hear Doerkson moved quickly to get rid of the guy (although let;s keep it real, easy to do in a riding that is strongly NDP anyway). Ho
Another minority govt?
Its happening everywhere in the world.
Voters are fed up with Left or Right extremes.
Im not so shocked at the minority as the fact that Quebec’s ruling CaQ was completely wiped out….didnt win one seat.
Politically correct “Coalition of Quebec” was wiped off the map and the leader immediately announced her resignation..
Eby take note.
Good or bad results. ( personally I think the NDP are going to get hammered big time)
He’s toast after this election.
(Response: It still boggles my mind how unsafe many of us now feel just walking down our streets during the day, how crazies and druggies are everywhere, how so many Emergency Rooms at hospitals (Emergency Rooms!!!) close so often, how BC’s debt has ballooned from $55 Billion to a projected $128 Billion and how our Credit Rating has dropped five or six times, forcing us to pay higher interest on borrowing!! No doubt, if the NDP lose, Eby is gone. Enough reason alone to vote Conservative this time. Ho)
Thanks for this, but oh my, for me there is zero choice.
Disenfranchised again!
Sadly for BC, Eby’s NDP are unfit for office, but the sorta rebranded, Maple MAGA Conservatives are also unfit for office. Both parties have zero vision for the future and their platforms are to reward political friends and insiders.
We wanted a centrist party to vote for, but instead we got a retread Maple MAGA anti everything wing-nuts, screw the poor, Conservatives and the hackneyed NDP, tilting at millionaires.
Hard right and hard left, that is the choice, which is no choice, but a death sentence.
American style tribal politics here we come because whoever wins it will be several years of civil discontent.
(Response: I don’t see the majority of the BC Conservatives as extreme as you do … maybe more like the old time Socreds were, less than progressive on social issues, but fiscally prudent and astute enough to attract investments, jobs for a growing economy. Yes, there would be some weird ideas, quotes and even actions for us to write about, but I think having Eby and the current crop of NDP ideologues in power for another four years would be worse … for the economy, investment, our healthcare, public safety, public and private land protection and BC’s debt. Ho)
The greens will be interesting to watch, as you noted any seats and they could enter into a supportive agreement if it works out that way, but I also think in ridings where a green candidate doesn’t have a hope, green voters will vote NDP strategically.
They are aware as most of us that Lorne Doerksen is doing a fine job of keeping a lid on the more extreme members under his banner for now, hard not to believe more than a few are lurking in the shadows that have the nomination in every riding under a very short timeframe, and he has to have a leadership vote at some point as he is the interim leader. The conservatives looked just like this when John Rustad was the leader. The same folks that voted for Kerry Lynn Findlay will be voting again.
(Response: When I look at the current election campaign, I keep thinking about how close the Conservatives came last time to winning the election. And then I think how much worse things are now in so many ways … how could they not win this time??? Unless Doerkson is a disaster in the TV debate or some Conservative candidate says something really awful or stupid. Ho)
Vote strategically if you have to .
Sounds like they’re offering a hybrid icbc option.
(Response: Eby made a valiant attempt today to scare people with the Conservative’ plans for ICBC. But I thought Doerkson responded quite well, pointing out that he sent his letter to more than 1400 people in the insurance business so it wasn’t exactly “secret“ and, in fact, the hybrid proposal was part of their platform in the last election as well. Ho)
Obviously, we know who/what the NDP is, have a good idea who/what the Greens are and OneBC is a fringe.
The Conservatives produce anxiety and Centre BC is free of any controversy and appears to be quietly cruising along.
I think we can safely discount Greens and OneBC having any impact solely because “we the people” are hell bent on turfing Eby, so will strategically vote for the Cons and CBC.
I would personally like to see the NDP come close the licking they got in 2001 when they received 21.5% of the popular vote, went from 39 to 2 seats and lost party status.
I won’t like the resulting coalition but can live with it for the next 1-2 years.
The mystery for now is turnout and I doubt it will be average; it could be extreme in either direction.
(Response: Nothing is ever certain during election campaigns: one big mistake or revelation or announcement can turn things around at the very last moment. Even today, the NDP was saying that the Conservatives would do away with ICBC public car insurance, and our rates would be doubled… enough I’m sure to scare many people! I have admitted I would like to see a change of government, i.e. give the Conservatives a term to show what they can do, get rid of DRIPA, try their hand at healthcare, public safety etc … while the NDP rebuilds, hopefully with the middle class at the center of its focus. But I don’t want them reduced to two or three seats… a good opposition is important in our system. My worst case scenario would be Eby leading for another four years of government: BC could be bankrupt by then … which I guess wouldn’t matter to most of us because the First Nations will own the whole province anyway. 🤣 Ho)
Why the hell can’t the other two conservative parties get together that would make sense. But politicians have a different view,, they think they can beat Eby. Man are we into a very interesting result. Eby is smiling.
(Response: Sometimes people have really different beliefs from the others who also want to topple a government, and I can respect that; but other times, there are personal egos involved, where each one wants to be the leader, and as a result, those in power keep getting reelected. Ho)
That’s so true. At this critical time we need to keep it tight, smart and strategic and not vote split, otherwise Eby gets to continue on with the NDPs insane activist activities and obscene handouts for the DRIPA and Reconciliation money pit. The Conservatives in opposition now are in reality the only ones to have a go at governing to at least reverse this craziness that actually Horgan started only to see Eby take things to new crazy and dizzying heights.
(Response: As long as the BC Conservatives repeal DRIPA, stop pandering/caving in so easily as Eby/NDP does to First Nations demands/claims/blockade threats and stops shoveling millions of dollars to any groups without a requirement that they open their books to all so everyone can see where/how our public tax dollars are spent … I believe they deserve at least one term. Period. Ho)