Keeping it Real…

This is no time for Prime Minister Mark Carney to cave in any more to Donald Trump’s bullying.

Canadians for months now have suffered job losses, economic hardships and emotional hurt and anger as a result of the US President’s tariffs, threats and insults … with Canada doing little or nothing to push back.

The latest on Canada, new 50% tariffs on another $20 Billion of select Canadian goods Trump are scheduled to kick in August 19.

But times … and the US economy to … are changing: so much so, I believe Trump will likely back off on most of announced new tariffs.

Why? Has the Mad Hatter suddenly realized the benefits of a fortress North America economy? Does he suddenly realize the benefits/value to the US of having a close trading partner and ally on its northern border?

Of course not.

But what is happening is that even Trump’s sycophantic Cabinet Secretaries and MAGA Republican Congress members can read the writing on America’s walls: the US too is starting to pay the price for Trump’s policies.

Growth of the US Gross Domestic Product FELL in June to only 1.5% … down from 2.1% in the previous quarter.

US exports also fell by 1.8% to a five month low of $204.7 Billion in June, a second consecutive monthly decline.

The world … not only Canadians … are checking the labels, and buying fewer American goods.

Remember, Trump has not only insulted, threatened, hit Canada with tariffs but virtually every other US trading partner as well.

“The drop was mainly due to lower goods exports, which decreased $11.3 billion to $210.6 billion. Industrial supplies and materials fell $5.5 billion, led by sharp declines in nonmonetary gold ($6.2 billion), other precious metals ($1.3 billion), and natural gas ($1.1 billion),” the TradingEconomics.com website reported.

” Consumer goods also declined $2.1 billion, including a $0.9 billion decrease in pharmaceutical preparations.”

(U.S. goods exports to Canada in 2025 were $336.5 billion, down 3.8 percent ($13.4 billion) from 2024.)

And that’s not all.

“A separate report showed that inflation in America grew at a 3.7% annualized rate in June of this year, which is well ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2% target,” the Baystreet Business reported last week.

“Slowing growth in an environment of rising inflation has raised fears of stagflation, an economic situation that hasn’t been seen in the U.S. since the late 1970s,” it said.

Trump’s tariffs have not only driven UP costs for Americans, but more and more of them are also noticing … and not buying the “spin” that others are paying for them.

A Harris poll done for the UK Guardian newspaper found more than 70% of US respondents realize tariffs “have led to them paying higher prices”.

“Americans are experiencing the most sticker shock at the grocery store, with 57% saying that tariffs have negatively affected grocery prices,” the survey found.

And Trump’s tariffs on Canadian lumber have led to huge increases in housing construction costs.

“U.S. home prices hit an all-time high as sales slow and mortgage rates rise,” read the Bloomberg headline July 9.

Mortgage rates in the US are now at 6.66% (the DEVIL made them do it?), the highest level in a year, according to Bloomberg News.

Farm bankruptcies rose 46% in 2025; manufacturing jobs have declined; and; despite tariffs, US imports from China have actually INCREASED

“Trump promised a ‘golden age’ for U.S. manufacturing, but his own policies have hampered investment and job growth,” Los Angeles Times business columnist Michael Hiltzik wrote last month.

All this, of course, adds up … or, perhaps more accurately, drops the Mad Hatter’s popularity down … way down!

A CNN poll last week rated Trump’s approval on: the economy, 30%; inflation, 25%; having the right priorities, 27%.

A Fox poll rated his handling of: the economy: excellent, good 24%; fair, poor 76%.

With the US midterms on the political horizon, the Republicans NEED some good news.

Announcement of a trade deal with Canada would be a BIG win; proceeding with those latest 50% tariffs on Canada would be a disaster … and not just for Canada!

Americans will pay even more, increasing their cost of living even more.

Carney must not cave in again.

If Trump proceeds with new tariffs on Canada, Carney must hit back with tariffs on US foods/produce/goods (foods/produce/canned goods) that Canadians can easily replace with domestic or foreign offerings from friendlier nations.

Harv Oberfeld

🇨🇦🇨🇦Check the labels. BUY CANADIAN!🇨🇦🇨🇦

(Follow @harveyoberfeld on “X” for FREE First Alerts to new postings on the Blog/)

The poll results surprised me. Premier David Eby on July 2 had scored some of the biggest commitments ever and $20 Billion from the federal government for BC projects. (I wrote about it on the blog:http://wp311593.wpdns.ca/david-ebys-best-week-in-a-year-but-will-it-save-his-leadership/).

There was $10 Billion in federal spending for port improvements, $3.5 Billion for a new transmission line, $3 Billion for the Massey tunnel project, $500 million for a mine expansion, etc. etc.

Normally, any provincial leader should see a boost in the polls immediately after such a rare, successful achievement.

But not David Eby.

Eby’s personal popularity fell again in a poll released Thursday by the Angus Reid Institute.

“That’s down from 31 per cent in June and 40 per cent in December. It’s part of a continued freefall in popularity, illustrated over several polls the past few months,” wrote Rob Shaw in Business in Vancouver. (Read the full article here: https://www.biv.com/news/commentary/rob-shaw-eby-draws-a-bead-on-trump-as-his-own-polling-numbers-plunge-12589222.)

““Most troubling for Eby may be the views of his party’s past voters,” wrote the polling agency.

“Approval among 2024 BC NDP voters has dropped from 78 per cent to 53 per cent between June and July. This suggests that while the pipeline may have economic benefits, those inclined to support Eby are more upset about it than those inclined to oppose him are to give him kudos,” Angus Reid found.

So what’s going on?

Could that many people have been following my rants about Eby and his NDP government’s failings, misguided policies, health care shortcomings, pandering to druggies, crazies and DRIPA???

Or maybe, just maybe, a report that also came out last week … but largely ignored by the mainstream media … tells the story.

“B.C.’s Economy Has Gone From Leader to Laggard,” read the headline of a report by the Independent Contractors and Businesses Association (ICBA).

“British Columbia’s economy has been disproportionately kept afloat by hefty government spending while its private sector stalls, its export base shrinks, and its once-enviable public finances deteriorate faster than any province in half a century,” the ICBA found.

“Government activity was responsible for all economic growth in 2024, with public sector GDP growing 6.6 per cent annually over 2022-24 while the private sector managed just 1 per cent – one-third of the normal pace. Growth did pick up slightly in 2025, but the outlook for 2026-27 is subdued.”

“ Since 2019, B.C. has added 1.3 government-driven jobs for every new private-sector job. In the rest of Canada, the ratio is 0.6. The public-sector wage bill has nearly doubled in seven years, from $26.7 billion to $53.2 billion,” says the report.

“Taxpayer-supported provincial debt is on track to triple in just six years.”

That’s awful!

Government provides public services and increasing numbers of well-paying, stable jobs with better benefits than the private sector …. but generates no goods, manufactures no equipment, grows no farm foods, produces no grocery items, mines no minerals … ie. adds no material value to the economy.

“Exports have fallen to 13.5 per cent of B.C.’s GDP, barely half the national average, with the timber harvest down 45 per cent since 2015 and lumber shipments to China collapsing by 80 per cent over the period.”

Clearly, people are noticing … and feeling the pain! In the REAL economy … small and medium sized businesses, especially in communities outside the province’s major urban areas.

“For too long, the underlying weaknesses in our provincial economy have been papered over, masked by a handful of mega energy projects, record population growth, and an unprecedented expansion of government hiring and spending,” said Chris Gardner, ICBA President and CEO.

“Those tailwinds are now gone, and the structural cracks in our economic foundations are impossible to ignore.”

No wonder Eby’s popularity is continuing to fall!

And not even Billions of federal bucks for major projects could give him a boost.

Harv Oberfeld

🇨🇦🇨🇦Now more than ever …BUY CANADIAN!🇨🇦🇨🇦

(Follow @harveyoberfeld.ca on “X” for FREE First Alerts to new postings on this blog.)