Keeping it Real…

Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced three federal by-elections April 13 to fill vacancies two vacancies in Toronto and one in Quebec.

Watch those results very closely!

Victories in all three would give the Liberals majority government. However, anything less could lead to ALL Canadians going to the polls again this Spring.

Here’s why:

Carney has been doing very well in polling.

“The latest Leger poll for Postmedia not only gives Mark Carney and the Liberals a 14-point lead over Poilievre and the Conservatives, the Liberals also lead in all demographic groups and in every region of the country save the prairies,” the Toronto Sun reported March 5th.

“With the NDP languishing at 5% voter support nationally and the Bloc Quebecois at just 25% in Quebec, such a result – if it came true – at the ballot box would deliver a massive majority government for Carney and the Liberals,” columnist Brian Lilley explained. (Read the full article here: https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/polls-show-why-conservatives-dont-want-election-now.)

Clearly, Poilievre is still failing to impress.

Plus, the NDP is still in shambles:

“The New Democrats had their worst election showing ever last April, with only seven MPs surviving in the House of Commons. Leader Jagmeet Singh lost his own seat and resigned,” the CBC noted Friday.

The party won’t even name its new leader until March 29 and then have to rebuild/refocus/regain public confidence and support.

But perhaps the biggest incentive for Carney to go to the polls is the coming renegotiations of the CUSMA Free Trade Agreement with the United States.

That is going to be ugly!

I wouldn’t envy any government trying to negotiate with the Mad Hatter … and there are growing expectations that to achieve an agreement (if that’s even possible!), Canada will have to suffer some highly unpopular … and costly … concessions/changes/losses.

And let’s keep it real: whatever deal Canada works out (again, if that’s even possible) will be a gift to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

The Opposition Leader will, of course, denounce it as a sell-out of Canadian industries/jobs/communities … worse than he had expected … and hundreds of thousands, or millions of affected Canadian voters would provide fertile ground for the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, Quebec must hold its next provincial election by October: the separatist Parti Quebecois is leading in the polls; and any CUSMA concessions, especially impacting dairy, would prove very rich fodder there.

So why wait to call a federal vote?

Instead, Carney could blame the Conservatives/Bloc/NDP for obstructionism in getting Bills passed that would lower Canadians’ taxes, bolster the economy, toughen crime and bail reform … and he could even appeal to voters for a “strong mandate” to take on Trump/CUSMA.

So watch those three by-elections April 13.

If they fail to deliver Carney his majority, a general election in late May or early June could turn into a reality.

Harv Oberfeld

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Most Canadians really dislike (too mild a word?) Donald Trump; regard him as quite a disgusting person; a liar; a racist; and, many even believe he’s mentally unstable.

But that doesn’t mean Trump is always wrong.

For 40 years, the Iranian government has been the most brutal, repressive, intolerant, terrorist-supporting regime … in not just the Middle East, but the world. And that takes some doing!

The Iranian administration admits to have killed, just weeks ago, more than 3,000 of its own citizens (injuring many thousands more) who were protesting economic conditions/lack of freedoms.

Just think: what kind of government ADMITS killing thousands of its own citizens … protesting students, women, shopkeepers, workers!

Some sources place the death toll at between 7,000 and 32,000, but it’s hard to reach Iranians to get first-hand figures/accounts because Internet access in Iran has been cut off for weeks.

Then, there was Mahsa Amini. The 22-year-old woman was detained, tortured and murdered in 2022 by Iran’s morality police after allegedly violating strict hijab laws. Incredible!!!

And Amini was not an isolated case.

“Iran executed at least 901 people in 2024, a significant increase from 834 in 2023, with the country accounting for 64% of all recorded executions worldwide,” according to Wikipedia.

The Shiite Iranian regime has also targeted, carried out attempted kidnappings, assassinations, and murdered critics/opponents throughout the world … and has been widely accused of being the largest financial sponsor and arms supplier of Islamic terrorist groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

And over the past two years, the Iranian mullahs have supplied Russia with thousands of incendiary/killer drones used to decimate military, infrastructure and civilians in Ukraine.

Truly a horrific regime … without even taking into account their 2024 attack on Israel (300 rockets, drones, ballistic missiles) or their sustained secret attempts over decades to develop a nuclear weapon and long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S.

Iran has been and would have continued to be the single biggest obstacle to stemming terrorism and finally achieving widespread stability and even peace in the Mid East.

Saturday, the timing was right, the forces were aligned and the circumstances provided a unique opportunity … so the US and Israel struck, taking out 40 of Iran’s top leadership, levelling a thousand Iranian military targets/infrastructure/missile launchers.

As I write this, the mission is continuing … and will hopefully lead to regime change.

And that’s where my own “Maybe” in considering the wisdom of the whole operation comes in.

Trump’s “go ahead’ for the US attack was the right decision … IF a better regime/government emerges for the people of Iran, the Middle East and world peace in general.

But without troops on the ground to install a new administration, unless there’s an as-yet-unknown secret plan/arrangement for an Opposition force or a group of moderate Iranian military generals to wrest power from the Revolutionary Guards (or the even more vicious Basij internal security force) the whole US adventure could collapse and lead to just another Supreme Leader and even more repression.

The next few weeks will tell: either proving Trump’s move was brilliant; or a disaster for the US, the Mid East … and the Iranian people.

Harv Oberfeld

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